Prediction model for future OHCAs based on geospatial and demographic data: An observational study.

This study used demographic data in a novel prediction model to identify areas with high risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in order to target prehospital preparedness. We combined data from the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry with geographical- and demographic data on a hectare level. Hectares were classified in a hierarchy according to characteristics and pooled to square kilometers (km2). Historical OHCA incidence of each hectare group was supplemented with a predicted annual risk of at least 1 OHCA to ensure future applicability. We recorded 19,090 valid OHCAs during 2016 to 2019. The mean annual OHCA rate was highest in residential areas with no point of public interest and 100 to 1000 residents per hectare (9.7/year/km2) followed by pedestrian streets with multiple shops (5.8/year/km2), areas with no point of public interest and 50 to 100 residents (5.5/year/km2), and malls with a mean annual incidence per km2 of 4.6. Other high incidence areas were public transport stations, schools and areas without a point of public interest and 10 to 50 residents. These areas combined constitute 1496 km2 annually corresponding to 3.4% of the total area of Denmark and account for 65% of the OHCA incidence. Our prediction model confirms these areas to be of high risk and outperforms simple previous incidence in identifying future risk-sites. Two thirds of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests were identified in only 3.4% of the area of Denmark. This area was easily identified as having multiple residents or having airports, malls, pedestrian shopping streets or schools. This result has important implications for targeted intervention such as automatic defibrillators available to the public. Further, demographic information should be considered when implementing such interventions.

Predicting the risks of kidney failure and death in adults with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease: multinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To train and test a super learner strategy for risk prediction of kidney failure and mortality in people with incident moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (stage G3b to G4). DESIGN: Multinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study. SETTINGS: Linked population health data from Canada (training and temporal testing), and Denmark and Scotland (geographical testing). PARTICIPANTS: People with newly recorded chronic kidney disease at stage G3b-G4, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 15-44 mL/min/1.73 m2. MODELLING: The super learner algorithm selected the best performing regression models or machine learning algorithms (learners) based on their ability to predict kidney failure and mortality with minimised cross-validated prediction error (Brier score, the lower the better). Prespecified learners included age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, with or without diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The index of prediction accuracy, a measure of calibration and discrimination calculated from the Brier score (the higher the better) was used to compare KDpredict with the benchmark, kidney failure risk equation, which does not account for the competing risk of death, and to evaluate the performance of KDpredict mortality models. RESULTS: 67 942 Canadians, 17 528 Danish, and 7740 Scottish residents with chronic kidney disease at stage G3b to G4 were included (median age 77-80 years; median eGFR 39 mL/min/1.73 m2). Median follow-up times were five to six years in all cohorts. Rates were 0.8-1.1 per 100 person years for kidney failure and 10-12 per 100 person years for death. KDpredict was more accurate than kidney failure risk equation in prediction of kidney failure risk: five year index of prediction accuracy 27.8% (95% confidence interval 25.2% to 30.6%) versus 18.1% (15.7% to 20.4%) in Denmark and 30.5% (27.8% to 33.5%) versus 14.2% (12.0% to 16.5%) in Scotland. Predictions from kidney failure risk equation and KDpredict differed substantially, potentially leading to diverging treatment decisions. An 80-year-old man with an eGFR of 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 and an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 100 mg/g (11 mg/mmol) would receive a five year kidney failure risk prediction of 10% from kidney failure risk equation (above the current nephrology referral threshold of 5%). The same man would receive five year risk predictions of 2% for kidney failure and 57% for mortality from KDpredict. Individual risk predictions from KDpredict with four or six variables were accurate for both outcomes. The KDpredict models retrained using older data provided accurate predictions when tested in temporally distinct, more recent data. CONCLUSIONS: KDpredict could be incorporated into electronic medical records or accessed online to accurately predict the risks of kidney failure and death in people with moderate to severe CKD. The KDpredict learning strategy is designed to be adapted to local needs and regularly revised over time to account for changes in the underlying health system and care processes.

Overweight in childhood and consumer purchases in a Danish cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prevention and management of childhood overweight involves the entire family. We aimed to investigate purchase patterns in households with at least one member with overweight in childhood by describing expenditure on different food groups. METHODS: This Danish register-based cohort study included households where at least one member donated receipts concerning consumers purchases in 2019-2021 and at least one member had their Body mass index (BMI) measured in childhood within ten years prior to first purchase. A probability index model was used to evaluate differences in proportion expenditure spent on specific food groups. RESULTS: We identified 737 households that included a member who had a BMI measurement in childhood, 220 with overweight and 517 with underweight or normal weight (reference households). Adjusting for education, income, family type, and urbanization, households with a member who had a BMI classified as overweight in childhood had statistically significant higher probability of spending a larger proportion of expenditure on ready meals 56.29% (95% CI: 51.70;60.78) and sugary drinks 55.98% (95% CI: 51.63;60.23). Conversely, they had a statistically significant lower probability of spending a larger proportion expenditure on vegetables 38.44% (95% CI: 34.09;42.99), compared to the reference households. CONCLUSION: Households with a member with BMI classified as overweight in childhood spent more on unhealthy foods and less on vegetables, compared to the reference households. This study highlights the need for household/family-oriented nutrition education and intervention.

Vitamin D Status During Adolescence and the Impact of Lifestyle Changes: 2 Years' Follow-up From the Fit Futures Study.

CONTEXT: Longitudinal data regarding vitamin D status in adolescence is scarce. This study presents population-based data from an Arctic adolescent population (n = 589) at 16 and 18 years. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to investigate changes in vitamin D status during 2 years in adolescence, and whether lifestyle changes were associated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) at follow-up. METHODS: Fit Futures is a longitudinal study at 69°N in Norway. Participants had their s-25(OH)D levels analyzed in their first and third year of upper secondary school (median age 16 and 18 years), in Fit Futures 1 (FF1) and Fit Futures 2 (FF2), respectively. Self-reported lifestyle habits were registered through questionnaires. The association between lifestyle changes and s-25(OH)D levels at follow-up were calculated by regression analyses, controlling for baseline s-25(OH)D levels. RESULTS: Longitudinal data were available for 309 girls and 280 boys. The proportion of adolescents with s-25(OH)D <50 nmol/L were 73.7% in FF1 and 77.1% in FF2, while the proportion <30 nmol/L constituted 35.7% in FF1 and 40.9% in FF2. Of those with s-25(OH)D <30 nmol/L (severe vitamin D deficiency) in FF1, 73.3% remained severely deficient in FF2. Among boys, an increase in UV exposure was significantly associated with higher s-25(OH)D levels in FF2 (beta; CI [nmol/L] 12.9; 9.1, 16.7). In girls, decreased vitamin/mineral supplement intake was significantly associated with lower s-25(OH)D at FF2 (-6.7; -10.2, -3.1), while increased UV (10.8; 7.0, 14.7) and combined hormonal contraceptive exposure (12.1; 6.0, 18.1) in FF2 was significantly associated with higher s-25(OH)D levels in FF2. CONCLUSION: Severe vitamin D deficiency was prevalent throughout adolescence. Lifestyle changes may alter s-25(OH)D levels in this age group.

Venous thromboembolism with use of hormonal contraception and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To study the influence of concomitant use of hormonal contraception and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on the risk of venous thromboembolism. DESIGN: Nationwide cohort study. SETTING: Denmark through national registries. PARTICIPANTS: All 15-49 year old women living in Denmark between 1996 and 2017 with no medical history of any venous or arterial thrombotic event, cancer, thrombophilia, hysterectomy, bilateral oophorectomy, sterilisation, or infertility treatment (n=2 029 065). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: A first time discharge diagnosis of lower limb deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. RESULTS: Among 2.0 million women followed for 21.0 million person years, 8710 venous thromboembolic events occurred. Compared with non-use of NSAIDs, use of NSAIDs was associated with an adjusted incidence rate ratio of venous thromboembolism of 7.2 (95% confidence interval 6.0 to 8.5) in women not using hormonal contraception, 11.0 (9.6 to 12.6) in women using high risk hormonal contraception, 7.9 (5.9 to 10.6) in those using medium risk hormonal contraception, and 4.5 (2.6 to 8.1) in users of low/no risk hormonal contraception. The corresponding numbers of extra venous thromboembolic events per 100 000 women over the first week of NSAID treatment compared with non-use of NSAIDs were 4 (3 to 5) in women not using hormonal contraception, 23 (19 to 27) in women using high risk hormonal contraception, 11 (7 to 15) in those using medium risk hormonal contraception, and 3 (0 to 5) in users of low/no risk hormonal contraception. CONCLUSIONS: NSAID use was positively associated with the development of venous thromboembolism in women of reproductive age. The number of extra venous thromboembolic events with NSAID use compared with non-use was significantly larger with concomitant use of high/medium risk hormonal contraception compared with concomitant use of low/no risk hormonal contraception. Women needing both hormonal contraception and regular use of NSAIDs should be advised accordingly.

Risk of first-time major cardiovascular event among individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: data from Danish registers.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine whether individuals with initial omission of glucose-lowering drug treatment (GLDT), including those achieving initial remission of type 2 diabetes, may experience a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared with well-controlled individuals on GLDT after a new type 2 diabetes diagnosis in real-world clinical practice. Furthermore, we examined whether a higher risk could be related to lower initiation of statins and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi). METHODS: In this cohort study, we used Danish registers to identify individuals with a first measured HbA1c between 48 and 57 mmol/mol (6.5-7.4%) from 2014 to 2020. Six months later, we divided participants into four groups according to GLDT and achieved HbA1c (<48 vs ≥48 mmol/mol [6.5%]): well-controlled and poorly controlled on GLDT; remission and persistent type 2 diabetes not on GLDT. We reported how much the standardised 5 year risk of MACE could be reduced for each group if initiation of statins and RASi was the same as in the well-controlled group on GLDT. RESULTS: We included 14,221 individuals. Compared with well-controlled participants on GLDT, the 5 year standardised risk of MACE was higher in the three other exposure groups: by 3.3% (95% CI 1.6, 5.1) in the persistent type 2 diabetes group not on GLDT; 2.0% (95% CI 0.4, 3.7) in the remission group not on GLDT; and 3.5% (95% CI 1.3, 5.7) in the poorly controlled group on GLDT. Fewer individuals not on GLDT initiated statins and RASi compared with individuals on GLDT. If initiation of statins and RASi had been the same as in the well-controlled group on GLDT, participants not on GLDT could have reduced their risk of MACE by 2.1% (95% CI 1.2, 2.9) in the persistent type 2 diabetes group and by 1.1% (95% CI 0.4, 1.9) in the remission group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Compared with well-controlled individuals on GLDT, individuals not on initial GLDT had a higher 5 year risk of MACE, even among those achieving remission of type 2 diabetes. This may be related to lower use of statins and RASi.

Risk of Worsening Heart Failure and All-Cause Mortality Following COVID-19 Vaccination in Patients With Heart Failure: A Nationwide Real-World Safety Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure are vulnerable to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, limited evidence exists on the safety of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in this patient population. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of all-cause mortality, worsening heart failure, venous thromboembolism, and myocarditis associated with the mRNA vaccines in patients with heart failure. METHODS: Using Danish nationwide registries, 2 cohorts were constructed: (1) all prevalent heart failure patients in 2019 aged 40 to 95 years and (2) all prevalent heart failure patients in 2021 aged 40 to 95 years, who were vaccinated with either of the 2 mRNA vaccines (BNT162B2 or mRNA-1273). The patients in the 2 cohorts were matched 1:1 using exact exposure matching on age, sex, and duration of heart failure. To estimate standardized absolute risks, outcome-specific Cox regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: The total study population comprised 101 786 patients. The median age of the study population was 74 years (interquartile range, 66-81). The standardized risk of all-cause mortality within 90 days was 2.23% (95% CI, 2.10%-2.36%) in the vaccinated cohort and 2.56% (95% CI, 2.43%-2.70%) in the unvaccinated cohort (90-day risk difference, -0.33% [95% CI, -0.52% to -0.15%]). The standardized risk of worsening heart failure within 90 days was 1.10% (95% CI, -1.01% to 1.19%) in the 2021 (vaccinated) cohort and 1.08% (95% CI, 0.99%-1.17%) in the 2019 (unvaccinated) cohort (risk difference, 0.02% [95% CI, -0.11% to 0.15%]). No significant differences were found regarding venous thromboembolism or myocarditis. CONCLUSIONS: Receiving an mRNA vaccine was not associated with an increased risk of worsening heart failure, myocarditis, venous thromboembolism, or all-cause mortality.

The risk of healing complications in primary teeth with root fractures: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Primary teeth are frequently affected by traumatic dental injuries. Root fractures are rare and have a reported incidence of 2% in the primary dentition. Hence, there is limited evidence on this topic. This study aims to evaluate the risk of healing complications in primary teeth with root fracture and to identify possible sequelae in the permanent dentition following root fracture in the primary dentition. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of a cohort of 53 patients with 74 root fractured primary teeth. The standard follow-up program included clinical and radiographic examination after 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year after the trauma and when the patient was 6 years of age. The following complications were registered: pulp necrosis (PN), pulp canal obliteration (PCO), ankylosis with replacement root resorption (ARR), infection-related root resorption (IRR), premature tooth loss (PTL), and repair-related resorption (RRR). STATISTICS: The Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators were employed. The level of significance was 5%. RESULTS: A total of 74 teeth were included. 42 teeth were extracted at the initial examination. Risks estimated after 3 years: PTL 45.9% [95% CI: 28.8-63.0], PCO 12.9% [95% CI: 2.3-23.4], PN 14.9% [95% CI: 3.9-25.9], RRR 2.6% [95% CI: 0.0-7.5]. No teeth showed ARR or IRR. All complications were diagnosed within the first year. Most common sequelae in the permanent dentition was demarcated opacities, with an estimated risk of 20% [95% CI: 8.2-41.3]. CONCLUSIONS: There is a low risk of healing complications following a root fracture in the primary dentition. Root fractures often result in early extraction of the coronal fragment. The remaining apical fragment will undergo a physiological resorption. Aside from opacities, there is a low risk of sequelae in the permanent dentition.

All-cause mortality among Danish nursing home residents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide cohort study.

A substantial part of mortality during the COVID-19-pandemic occurred among nursing home residents which caused alarm in many countries. We investigate nursing home mortality in relation to the expected mortality prior to the pandemic. This nationwide register-based study included all 135,501 Danish nursing home residents between 2015 until October 6, 2021. All-cause mortality rates were calculated using a standardization method on sex and age distribution of 2020. Survival probability and lifetime lost for 180 days was calculated using Kaplan Meier estimates. Of 3,587 COVID-19 related deaths, 1137 (32%) occurred among nursing home residents. The yearly all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 person-years in 2015, 2016, and 2017 were 35,301 (95% CI: 34,671-35,943), 34,801 (95% CI: 34,180-35,432), and 35,708 (95% CI: 35,085-36,343), respectively. Slightly elevated mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were seen in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 of 38,268 (95% CI: 37,620-38,929), 36,956 (95% CI: 36,323-37,600), 37,475 (95% CI: 36,838-38,122), and 38,536 (95% CI: 37,798-39,287), respectively. For SARS-CoV-2-infected nursing home residents, lifetime lost difference was 42 days (95% CI: 38-46) in 2020 versus non-infected in 2018. Among vaccinated in 2021, lifetime lost difference was 25 days (95% CI: 18-32) for SARS-CoV-2-infected versus non-infected. Even though a high proportion of COVID-19 fatalities took place in nursing homes and SARS-CoV-2-infection increased the risk of individual death, the annual mortality was only slightly elevated. For future epidemics or pandemics reporting numbers of fatal cases in relation to expected mortality is critical.

Marginal structural models with monotonicity constraints: A case study in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients.

This paper deals with estimating the probability of a binary counterfactual outcome as a function of a continuous covariate under monotonicity constraints. We are motivated by the study of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients which aims to estimate the counterfactual 30-day survival probability if either all patients had received, or if none of the patients had received bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), as a function of the ambulance response time. It is natural to assume that the counterfactual 30-day survival probability cannot increase with increasing ambulance response time. We model the monotone relationship with a marginal structural model and B-splines. We then derive an estimating equation for the parameters of interest which however further relies on an auxiliary regression model for the observed 30-day survival probabilities. The predictions of the observed 30-day survival probabilities are used as pseudo-values for the unobserved counterfactual 30-day survival status. The methods are illustrated and contrasted with an unconstrained modeling approach in large-scale Danish registry data.

Development and validation of prediction models for incident atrial fibrillation in heart failure.

OBJECTIVES: Accurate prediction of heart failure (HF) patients at high risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a potentially valuable tool to inform shared decision making. No validated prediction model for AF in HF is currently available. The objective was to develop clinical prediction models for 1-year risk of AF. METHODS: Using the Danish Heart Failure Registry, we conducted a nationwide registry-based cohort study of all incident HF patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2018 and without history of AF. Administrative data sources provided the predictors. We used a cause-specific Cox regression model framework to predict 1-year risk of AF. Internal validity was examined using temporal validation. RESULTS: The population included 27 947 HF patients (mean age 69 years; 34% female). Clinical experts preselected sex, age at HF, NewYork Heart Association (NYHA) class, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, obstructive sleep apnoea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and myocardial infarction. Among patients aged 70 years at HF, the predicted 1-year risk was 9.3% (95% CI 7.1% to 11.8%) for males and 6.4% (95% CI 4.9% to 8.3%) for females given all risk factors and NYHA III/IV, and 7.5% (95% CI 6.7% to 8.4%) and 5.1% (95% CI 4.5% to 5.8%), respectively, given absence of risk factors and NYHA class I. The area under the curve was 65.7% (95% CI 63.9% to 67.5%) and Brier score 7.0% (95% CI 5.2% to 8.9%). CONCLUSION: We developed a prediction model for the 1-year risk of AF. Application of the model in routine clinical settings is necessary to determine the possibility of predicting AF risk among patients with HF more accurately and if so, to quantify the clinical effects of implementing the model in practice.

Heavy prenatal alcohol exposure and overall morbidities: a Danish nationwide cohort study from 1996 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Heavy prenatal alcohol exposure is harmful and can lead to fetal alcohol spectrum disorders. A systematic review and meta-analysis identified 428 comorbidities in individuals with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders, and reported pooled prevalence estimates. We aimed to investigate overall risk of morbidities in heavy prenatal alcohol-exposed children by estimating risk of the identified comorbidities, and previously unidentified diseases and health-related problems. METHODS: Our Danish nationwide register-based cohort study included all singleton births. Individuals were followed up to age 18 years, between 1996 and 2018. Stillbirths and children of immigrants were not included in the study, and births of women who migrated within 1 year before or during pregnancy were also excluded due to loss to follow-up. Data on health and education were extracted from the Danish Medical Birth Register, the Danish National Patient Registry, the Danish National Prescription Registry, the Danish Civil Registration System, and the Population Education Register. We estimated crude and standardised risk differences of hospital diagnoses. Heavy prenatal alcohol exposure was defined by hospital contacts with alcohol-attributable diagnoses given to the mother or her child, or by maternal redeemed prescriptions for drugs to treat alcohol dependence 1 year before or during pregnancy. FINDINGS: Of 1 407 689 identified singleton births, 219 186 were excluded for reasons including they were born to immigrants, lost to follow-up, or were stillbirths. Of the remaining 1 188 503 children, 4799 (0·4%) had heavy prenatal alcohol exposure and 1 183 704 (99·6%) were classified as non-alcohol-exposed births. 578 179 (48·6%) babies were female and 610 324 (51·4%) were male. We found 234 of 428 previously identified comorbidities in individuals with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, of which 29 conditions had a standardised risk difference of at least 0·5%, predominantly related to brain function, behavioural disorders, infections, and neonatal conditions. The four highest standardised risk differences were found for low birthweight (4·70% [95% CI 3·70-5·71]), small for gestational age (4·63% [3·72-5·55]), delayed milestone (3·81% [2·99-4·64]), and other preterm infants (2·69% [1·71-3·68]). Of previously unidentified diseases and health-related problems, 32 of 719 had a standardised risk difference of at least 1·0%, mainly related to brain function, some injuries, substance-related conditions, and childhood adversities. INTERPRETATION: Heavy prenatal alcohol exposure is associated with an overall increased risk of child morbidities and previously unrecognised alcohol-related health problems. Prenatal alcohol exposure is a key public health issue with a potential negative impact on child and adolescent health. This study urges for renewed efforts and substantiates the profound degree to which pre-conceptional care is mandatory. FUNDING: The Obel Family Foundation, The Health Foundation, TrygFonden, Aase and Ejnar Danielsens Foundation, The North Denmark Region Health Science and Research Foundation, Holms Memorial Foundation, Dagmar Marshalls Foundation, the A.P. Møller Foundation, King Christian X Foundation, Torben and Alice Frimodts Foundation, the Axel and Eva Kastrup-Nielsens Foundation, and the A.V. Lykfeldts Foundation.

Diagnostic group differences in return to work and subsequent detachment from employment following cardiovascular disease: a nationwide cohort study.

AIMS: Return to work and employment maintenance following cardiovascular disease (CVD) are important rehabilitation goals for people of working age. To identify people in particular need of vocational rehabilitation, we examined differences in return to work and subsequent detachment from employment among people with atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), heart valve disease, and ischaemic heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a nationwide cohort study and included all individuals of working age (35-65 years) who were employed when diagnosed with incident CVD in 2018. We estimated sex- and age-standardized probabilities of remaining employed at 3, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis, and of detachment from employment within 6 months after having returned to work. Of 46 912 individuals diagnosed in 2018, 8187 were of working age and employed at diagnosis. The mean age was 54.7 years (SD = 6.7), and 74.0% were men. Within 1 year, 89.8% had returned to work, but within the subsequent 6 months, 23.5% of these experienced detachment from employment. At 3, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis the highest standardized probability of being employed was found among people with AF, whereas the lowest probability was found among people with HF {78.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 77.3-80.4] vs. 62.2% [95% CI: 59.0-65.4] at 12 months}. Similarly, the highest probability of detachment was found for people with HF [30.3% (95% CI: 26.9-33.7)]. CONCLUSION: People with HF present the highest probability of not returning to work. There is a need for developing and documenting effects of vocational rehabilitation strategies within comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation programmes.

Hypothetical interventions on emergency ambulance and prehospital acetylsalicylic acid administration in myocardial infarction patients presenting without chest pain.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction (MI) patients presenting without chest pain are a diagnostic challenge. They receive suboptimal prehospital management and have high mortality. To elucidate potential benefits of improved management, we analysed expected outcome among non-chest pain MI patients if hypothetically they (1) received emergency ambulances/acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) as often as observed for chest pain patients, and (2) all received emergency ambulance/ASA. METHODS: We sampled calls to emergency and non-emergency medical services for patients hospitalized with MI within 24 h and categorized calls as chest pain/non-chest pain. Outcomes were 30-day mortality and a 1-year combined outcome of re-infarction, heart failure admission, and mortality. Targeted minimum loss-based estimation was used for all statistical analyses. RESULTS: Among 5418 calls regarding MI patients, 24% (1309) were recorded with non-chest pain. In total, 90% (3689/4109) of chest pain and 40% (525/1309) of non-chest pain patients received an emergency ambulance, and 73% (2668/3632) and 37% (192/518) of chest pain and non-chest pain patients received prehospital ASA. Providing ambulances to all non-chest pain patients was not associated with improved survival. Prehospital administration of ASA to all emergency ambulance transports of non-chest pain MI patients was expected to reduce 30-day mortality by 5.3% (CI 95%: [1.7%;9%]) from 12.8% to 7.4%. No significant reduction was found for the 1-year combined outcome (2.6% CI 95% [- 2.9%;8.1%]). In comparison, the observed 30-day mortality was 3% among ambulance-transported chest pain MI patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found large differences in the prehospital management of MI patients with and without chest pain. Improved prehospital ASA administration to non-chest pain MI patients could possibly reduce 30-day mortality, but long-term effects appear limited. Non-chest pain MI patients are difficult to identify prehospital and possible unintended effects of ASA might outweigh the potential benefits of improving the prehospital management. Future research should investigate ways to improve the prehospital recognition of MI in the absence of chest pain.

Perceived return-to-work pressure following cardiovascular disease is associated with age, sex, and diagnosis: a nationwide combined survey- and register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Return to work is a key rehabilitation goal for people with cardiovascular disease (CVD) because employment matters to individuals and societies. However, people recovering from CVD often struggle with returning to work and maintaining employment. To identify people in need of vocational counselling, we examined the probability of feeling under pressure to return to work following CVD. METHODS: We conducted a combined survey- and register-based study in a randomly selected, population-based cohort of 10,000 people diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, heart failure, heart valve disease, or ischaemic heart disease in 2018. The questionnaire covered return-to-work items, and we reported the probabilities of feeling under pressure to return to work with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in categories defined by sex, age, and CVD diagnosis. RESULTS: The survey response rate was 51.1%. In this study, we included 842 respondents (79.7% men) aged 32-85 years, who had returned to work following a sick leave. Overall, 249 (29.7%) had felt pressure to return to work. The probability of feeling under pressure to return to work ranged from 18.3% (95% CI: 13.1-24.6) among men aged > 55 years with atrial fibrillation to 51.7% (95% CI: 32.5-70.6) among women aged ≤ 55 years with atrial fibrillation. In addition, 66.0% of all respondents had not been offered vocational rehabilitation, and 48.6% of those who reported a need for vocational counselling had unmet needs. Survey responses also indicated that many respondents had returned to work before feeling mentally and physically ready. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of people with cardiovascular disease feel under pressure to return to work, and this pressure is associated with age, sex, and diagnosis. The results show that vocational rehabilitation must be improved and emphasize the importance of ensuring that cardiac rehabilitation programmes include all core rehabilitation components.

Food purchases in households with and without diabetes based on consumer purchase data.

OBJECTIVES: Dietary recommendations for individuals with diabetes are easy to provide, but adherence is difficult to monitor. The objective of this study was to investigate whether there was a difference in grocery purchases between households with and without diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: Consumer purchase data in 2019 was collected from 6662 households donating their supermarket receipts via a receipt collecting service. Of these households, 718 included at least one individual with diabetes. The monetary percentages spent on specific food groups were used to characterize households using all purchases in 2019. A probability index model was used to compare households with diabetes to households without diabetes. RESULTS: We included 405,264 shopping trips in 2019 attributed to 6662 households. Both households with and without diabetes spent the highest monetary percentage on sweets (with diabetes: 9.3%, without diabetes: 8.8%), with no statistically significant difference detected. However, compared to households without diabetes, households with diabetes had a significantly higher probability of spending a higher monetary percentage on butter, oil and dressings; non-sugary drinks; processed red meat and ready meals as well as a significantly lower probability of spending a higher monetary percentage on accessory compounds; alcoholic beverages; eggs; grains; rice and pasta, and raw vegetables. CONCLUSIONS: Households with diabetes spent a relatively higher monetary value on several unhealthy foods and less on several healthy groceries compared to households without diabetes. There is a need for more diabetes self-management education focused on including more healthy dietary choices in their household grocery purchases.

Prediction of cardiovascular events from systolic or diastolic blood pressure.

Over time, a focus on blood pressure has transferred from diastolic pressure to systolic pressure. Formal analyses of differences in predictive value are scarce. Our goal of the study was whether office SBP adds prognostic information to office DBP and whether both 24-h ambulatory SBP and 24-h ambulatory DBP is specifically important. The authors examined 2097 participants from a population cohort recruited in Copenhagen, Denmark. Cause-specific Cox regression was performed to predict 10-year person-specific absolute risks of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events. Also, the time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) was utilized to evaluate discriminative ability. The calibration plots of the models (Hosmer-May test) were calculated as well as the Brier score which combines (discrimination and calibration). Adding both 24-h ambulatory SBP and 24-h ambulatory diastolic blood pressure did not significantly increase AUC for CV mortality and CV events. Moreover, adding both office SBP and office DBP did not significantly improve AUC for both CV mortality and CV events. The difference in AUC (95% confidence interval; p-value) was .26% (-.2% to .73%; .27) for 10-year CV mortality and .69% (-.09% to 1.46%; .082) for 10-year risk of CV events. The difference in AUC was .12% (-.2% to .44%; .46) for 10-year CV mortality and .04% (-.35 to .42%; .85) for 10-year risk of CV events. Moreover, for both CV mortality and CV events, office SBP did not improve prognostic information to office DBP. In addition, the Brier scores of office BP in both CV mortality and CV events were .078 and .077, respectively. Furthermore, the Brier scores were .077 and .078 in CV mortality and CV events of 24-h ambulatory. For the average population as those participating in a population survey, the 10-year discriminative ability for long-term predictions of CV death and CV events is not improved by adding systolic to diastolic blood pressure. This finding is found for ambulatory as well as office blood pressure.

Impact of socioeconomic position on initiation of SGLT-2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists in patients with type 2 diabetes - a Danish nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic position may affect initiation of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) and glucacon-like-peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We examined the association between socioeconomic position and initiation of SGLT-2i or GLP-1RA in patients with T2D at time of first intensification of antidiabetic treatment. METHODS: Through nationwide registers, we identified all Danish patients on metformin who initiated second-line add-on therapy between December 10, 2012, and December 31, 2020. For each time period (2012-2014, 2015-2017, and 2018-2020), we used multivariable multinomial logistic regression to associate disposable income, as proxy for socioeconomic position, with the probability of initiating a specific second-line treatment at time of first intensification. We reported probabilities standardised to the distribution of demographics and comorbidities of patients included in the last period (2018-2020). FINDINGS: We included 48915 patients (median age 62 years; 61·7% men). In each time period, high-income patients were more often men and had less comorbidities as compared with low income-patients. In each time period, the standardised probability of initiating a SGLT-2i or a GLP-1RA was significantly higher in the highest income group compared with the lowest: 11·4% vs. 9·5% (probability ratio [PR] 1·21, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1·01-1·44) in 2012-2014; 22·6% vs. 19.6% (PR 1·15, CI 1·05-1·27) in 2015-2017; and 65·8% vs. 54·8% (PR 1·20, CI 1·16-1·24) in 2018-2020. The differences by income were consistent across multiple subgroups. INTERPRETATION: Despite a universal healthcare system, low socioeconomic position was consistently associated with a lower probability of initiating a SGLT-2i or a GLP-1RA. These disparities may widen the future socioeconomic gap in cardiovascular outcomes. FUNDING: The work was funded by unrestricted grants from 'Region Sjaelland Den Sundhedsvidenskabelige Forskningsfond' and 'Murermester Lauritz Peter Christensen og hustru Kirsten Sigrid Christensens Fond'.

Human papillomavirus testing in metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the neck with unknown primary using PCR on fine-needle aspiration smears: a prospective clinical study.

PURPOSE: Squamous cell carcinoma metastasis of the head and neck with unknown primary tumor (CUP) comprises a diagnostic challenge. Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on cytologic specimens is gaining increasing focus as this may facilitate an early diagnosis of HPV-induced oropharyngeal carcinoma. This study aimed to prospectively assess PCR-based HPV-DNA testing on FNA smears in a clinical setting. METHODS: Patients referred to a tertiary Head and Neck Cancer Center with suspected CUP were included from November 2016 to November 2018. Scraped cell material from FNA smears was analyzed for HPV-DNA with PCR using general primers (GP5 + /GP6 +) and correlated with the origin and histology of the primary tumor (oropharynx vs. outside oropharynx or benign tumor). The turn-around time reflecting the workflow for HPV-DNA testing by PCR was also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 93 patients were enrolled in the study. The sensitivity and specificity were 86.7% [95% CI 75.4-94.1%] and 92.0% [95% CI 74.0-99.0%], and the positive and negative predictive values were 96.3% [95% CI 87.3-99.0%] and 74.2% [95% CI 59.9-84.7%], respectively. The turn-around time for HPV testing was a mean four calendar days. CONCLUSION: HPV-DNA testing on FNA smears can be performed within a reasonable timeframe and can guide for the detection of an HPV-positive oropharyngeal primary tumor in the clinical setting for patients presenting with CUP of the head and neck.